Bitcoin may be forming a base at $65,000 as 'paper hands' have been flushed out

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요약

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, says strong earnings are helping markets absorb geopolitical shocks, despite ongoing risks.

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Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, says strong earnings are helping markets absorb geopolitical shocks, despite ongoing risks.

What to know:

• Oil backwardation, stable credit spreads, and modest equity drawdowns suggest investors expect tensions around Iran to resolve.
• Bitcoin, in particular looks technically interesting to Timmer, with the $65,000 level acting as solid support.
• Strong earnings and a mid-cycle expansion are preventing a deeper equity selloff, even amid geopolitical uncertainty, the strategist said.

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, characterizes the current market environment as “another wild ride,” where each week seems to deliver headlines stranger than the last.

Yet despite the volatility, his overarching message is that conditions are not nearly as dire as they might appear, and he remains relatively constructive on the outlook for markets.

Timmer argues that markets, broadly speaking, are "pricing in some form of resolution" to the current geopolitical tensions, particularly around Iran, "sooner rather than later," he told CoinDesk in an interview.

Oil 'backwardation'

While crude prices surged above $100 a barrel, the futures curve remains in backwardation, with contracts further out trading roughly $40 below the front month. That structure signals that markets view the current supply disruption as a short-term bottleneck rather than a prolonged crisis, according to Timmer.

Elsewhere, market behavior reinforces this cautiously optimistic view. The S&P 500, which at one point was down about 9%, has recovered to a drawdown closer to 1%.

Credit spreads remain contained, suggesting that systemic stress is limited. Even in traditionally defensive assets, the signals are nuanced. Gold and bonds, which are typically less correlated, have been moving together more closely, a dynamic Timmer attributes in part to global capital flows.

Countries facing constraints in moving energy through the Strait of Hormuz, he notes, may be raising liquidity by selling highly liquid assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries, creating unusual correlations.

The crypto market got a much-needed lift Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Oil prices plunged more than 17% on the news and equity markets also gained. WTI has since bounced back to trade around $100.

Bitcoin's $65,000 support

Bitcoin BTC$72,174.69 adds another layer to this shifting landscape, behaving more like gold, while gold has, at times, traded with characteristics more akin to BTC.

When bitcoin reached $126,000 last October, fast-moving capital rotated out of crypto and into gold, a shift visible in exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows. Now, however, with bitcoin already down 50–60% from its peak, Timmer sees fewer “paper hands” left in the market.

Selling pressure has largely been absorbed, while gold, after a strong run, appears more vulnerable to a pullback. Despite this, he remains bullish on both assets. Bitcoin, in particular, looks technically interesting to him, with the $65,000 level acting as solid support.

He sees the potential for a base to form, though he emphasizes that a catalyst will be needed to drive the next leg higher.

The world's largest cryptocurrency was trading in the low $70,000s at the time of publication.

'Priced for success'

Timmer believes equities are effectively priced for success, with only single-digit drawdowns despite significant geopolitical uncertainty. A key reason, he argues, is the strength of corporate earnings.

Importantly, Timmer points out that the broader backdrop before the Iran conflict was already constructive. The U.S. Supreme Court’s rollback of tariffs had improved the policy environment, and fears of an AI-driven market bubble had not materialized. In fact, he sees investor skepticism, particularly toward AI and software valuations, as a healthy sign. In a true bubble, investors stop asking hard questions; today, they are doing the opposite. That scrutiny, in his view, has helped prevent the market from overshooting.

Still, the situation in the Middle East remains fluid, and the range of possible outcomes is wide. A worst-case scenario, in which Iran escalates by targeting energy infrastructure across the Gulf, could be highly destabilizing. With roughly 20% of global oil supply passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a prolonged disruption could lead to a stagflationary shock, combining elevated inflation with weaker growth.

Timmer nevertheless believes markets have developed a more measured response to geopolitical shocks. After a series of “false alarms,” including last year’s tariff-related selloff, which saw the S&P 500 drop 21% from its highs, investors are less prone to panic. There is now a “show-me” attitude, where weak hands are less easily shaken out.

This backdrop remains constructive, Timmer argues, supported by what he describes as a strong mid-cycle economic expansion. However, he highlights several risks that investors should actively manage.

One is concentration risk, particularly in the so-called “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks. Interest rate risk is another key concern. The 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.5% and could move toward 5%, a development that has occurred even amid geopolitical uncertainty. Rising yields, rather than falling, are an important signal that investors should monitor closely.

The real risk

Ultimately, Timmer frames periods of volatility not just as challenges but as opportunities. He encourages investors to act as providers of liquidity rather than takers. Those who panic during turbulent periods become price takers, while disciplined investors with long-term perspectives can step in as price makers. At Fidelity, he notes, this means leaning into volatility, providing liquidity, and rebalancing portfolios when others are retreating.

While acknowledging that geopolitical events are inherently unpredictable, Timmer emphasizes that remaining on the sidelines out of fear is not a viable strategy. Instead, a well-diversified portfolio, combined with a willingness to engage during periods of stress, can offer the best path forward.

Read more: Oil shock, Iran war risk keep crypto investors on sidelines: Grayscale

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As the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz goes into effect, reports say Iran is considering the abandonment of uranium enrichment as a way to end the war.

What to know:

• Bitcoin moved off the worst of its weekend levels in U.S. Monday morning trading.
• Reports suggested Iran was mulling concessions over its nuclear program as a way to end the war.
• U.S. stocks have also reversed sizable early losses, with crypto-related shares broadly higher.

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